The Gates Foundation is seeking proposals to fund the development of a computational model and interactive web tool to forecast and address the digital divide in mobile internet access across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), particularly in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. This initiative aims to guide inclusive digital practices and interventions over the next decade, focusing on vulnerable populations.

Project Objectives

The primary objective is to build a computational model of current and future mobile internet trends, factoring in both supply- and demand-side influences on the digital divide. This model will project the trajectory of the digital divide over the next decade, highlighting disparities among different population segments.

The project also aims to create an interactive, web-based tool that allows users to visualize how changes in supply- and demand-side factors affect the speed at which commercial markets can close the digital divide. This tool will focus on vulnerable populations such as women, low-income individuals, and rural communities.

Finally, the initiative seeks to expand the mobile internet model to understand how trends in the digital divide may affect development outcomes such as health, agriculture, education, and economic opportunities. These visualizations will be integrated into the web-based tool to guide stakeholders in considering effective interventions.

Key Focus Areas

The project will focus on LMICs in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, with potential country-level deep dives in 3 or more focus countries. The model will consider both supply-side factors (e.g., mobile network coverage, data affordability, digital infrastructure) and demand-side factors (e.g., digital literacy, social norms, perceived benefits of internet use).

The research will analyze how these factors interact to affect individuals in different digital readiness segments: unconnected, under-connected, meaningfully connected, and AI ready. The project will also explore the impact of the digital divide on key development outcomes, including health, agriculture, education, and economic opportunities.

The interactive web tool will allow users to toggle levels of these influences on different geographies, populations, and digital readiness segments at the national and sub-national level, where feasible. The tool will help stakeholders assess where, when, how, and for whom different types of digital interventions could be more efficient or effective.

Expected Deliverables

The project's deliverables include a computational model of mobile internet trends over the next decade, along with an analysis of the influence and potential impact of various factors on the digital divide. This analysis will cover national and sub-national geographies and population segments of interest.

An interactive website/tool will be created to visualize the model, allowing users to explore scenarios via simulation by toggling supply- or demand-side factors, government subsidies, digital literacy campaigns, and phone prices. The tool will also provide insights into the impact on the four digital readiness segments in specific geographies.

The model and interface will be expanded to include the impact on development outcomes, providing a comprehensive understanding of the digital divide's effects. Knowledge contributions will include thought leadership on modeling digital equity, brief reports, slide decks, peer-reviewed publications, toolkits, and technical documentation.

Eligibility and Selection Criteria

The proposed team's qualifications, including modeling and gender expertise, are critical. Partnerships and consortiums are allowed, with a clear plan for multiple organization contributions and responsibilities.

• Knowledge and/or experience with phone, smartphone, technology, or mobile internet adoption in LMICs, in the three focus countries, or similar geographies is essential.

• Deep expertise in the methodologies required to complete the work with the ability to explain those methods in clear, concise, and accessible language to lay audiences is required.

The selection process will also consider the quality of performance history, flexibility, rigor, innovation, creativity, and commitment to working with stakeholders. An appropriate budget is also a key factor.

Application Details

Research proposals must be no more than 7 pages, with additional pages allowed for a cover page, CVs, references, timeline, and high-level budget. The proposal should include a brief background, research questions/objectives, model description, data sources, model calibration/validation processes, data analysis, interface creation/dissemination, limitations, consensus building/next steps, timeline, and budget.

The document should be attached in a single PDF in the Survey Monkey Tool, using 12-pt font and 1” margins. Questions regarding this RFP should be submitted via e-mail to Caryl Feldacker at caryl.feldacker@gatesfoundation.org, with the subject line "RFP- Digital Divide Modeling".

The submission deadline is June 30, 2025, 12:00 PM U.S. Pacific Time. The project is expected to start in July 2025, and the grantee is expected to host the product for a minimum of 5 years.