When a country's economy falters, families feel the strain. But what is the hidden cost for the youngest and most vulnerable? A landmark study published in The Lancet Global Health has investigated how these economic shocks ripple through households to affect the nutrition of children under five.

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The work, led by Natanael J Silva of the Barcelona Institute for Global Health, reveals that the timing of a financial shock has profound and distinct impacts on a child’s growth and well-being.

To understand this complex relationship, the researchers undertook an analysis, pooling data from over 1.6 million children across 230 national surveys in 68 low- and middle-income countries. The analysis examined different forms of malnutrition: stunting, wasting and overweight or obesity. It also looked at the disturbing trend of the "double burden of malnutrition," where a single child suffers from both stunting and being overweight.

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Window of exposure to an economic downturn is critical

The findings show that the window of exposure to an economic downturn is critical. An economic shock experienced in the current year, for instance, leads to immediate problems. The study found it increased the prevalence of wasting by 5.4% and severe wasting by a staggering 12.7%. This suggests that sudden income loss directly impacts a family's ability to provide enough nutritious food, leading to acute malnutrition.

The effects of a shock during pregnancy are different, yet just as damaging. When a negative income shock occurred in a child’s year of birth, the data showed a clear increase in stunting. The more severe the economic hit, the higher the risk.

A major economic shock (a drop in income of more than 10%) in the year of birth increased the chance of severe stunting by nearly 10%. This tells us that economic instability during pregnancy can cast a long shadow on a child’s entire developmental path.

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The Paradoxical Link to Obesity

Perhaps the most striking discovery relates to the first 1000 days of life—the critical period from conception to a child’s second birthday. For children who experienced an economic shock during this window, the risk of developing the "double burden of malnutrition" (being both stunted and overweight) later in childhood surged by an incredible 30.3%. The risk of obesity alone jumped by over 14%.

This might seem paradoxical. How can economic hardship lead to being overweight? Researchers believe this points to a complex biological response. Early life nutritional stress may program a child’s body to hold onto energy more efficiently. When followed by a shift to cheaper, high-calorie, but nutrient-poor foods—a common scenario in many developing economies—this can lead to rapid weight gain, even while the child remains stunted from earlier deprivation.

This research sends a clear message: protecting the economic stability of families, especially those with young children, is a public health imperative. Policymakers must recognize these critical windows of vulnerability—pregnancy and the first 1000 days—and create targeted support systems to shield mothers and children from the devastating and long-lasting nutritional consequences of economic crises.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(25)00153-6